It’s been a while since I have posted here so, anyway…
I will attempt brevity here.
So, these last few months have been pretty god for me so far. Like, really good. However, due to an unfortunate circumstance, the area of which I am most able to generate significant capital has shut down on me. While this is a bummer, it has raised a serious issue for me…
Let me explain. I am a professional blackjack player. Not in the sense of online bonus hustling, but rather tracking the expected value of the pack(s) in a french deck.
What does this mean? Well it means that for every positive expectation in the game of 21 I should bet the product of my bankroll, EV, and standard deviation. This is called kelly betting.
If the bet is less than zero (0), you will not bet as every outcome tends towards ruin of your bankroll.
If the bet is greater than zero, you will follow the kelly betting function to the tee.
Now, you could bet less than kelly, called fractional kelly. This means that you will reduce your risk by the ratio of the fractional kelly, but so shall your profits. If you half kelly, you halve your risk, but also halve your return. This is called underbetting, or taking too little risk for too little reward. The opposite is called overbetting, or taking too much risk for too little reward. Does this make sense? If you overbet, you subject yourself to too much variance and can (or will) put yourself in a ruinous situation.
How does Blackjack come into play? Simple, by counting cards, each card that is removed has an expected value. This changes any and all possible hand combos for the deck or shoe. Lower cards means less stiff hands like 13, 14, 15, 16, which tend to bust more. At the same time the dealer makes more 18, 19, 20, and unnatural 21’s more often with lots of little cards. With high cards, you make better hands like 17, 18, 19 and natural 21’s (blackjacks) more often while the dealer breaks more often!
Wait! The dealer has the same chance as you for making a blackjack! Why is a deck rich with 10’s and Aces good for the player? Two reasons: 1.) The player get paid 3:2 or 150 percent of the bet with a two card 21 (called an natural 21 or blackjack) 2.) The player can take insurance against a dealer Ace with more confidence with a deck rich in 10’s. This will reduce variance and actually increase win rate.
With the basics out of the way, what is it that I am asking? For help. What kind of help? A big one. One where I need to communites help and trust while rewarding it at the same time.
I want to set up a Blackjack/CardCounting coin for a community bankroll. I am going out on a limb here and asking for help, yes. I feel stupid asking for financiers, but I feel that the GH Community has the means to protect both parties.
A coin built on “Trust, but verify” would be needed as I would be responsible for adding winnings to the pot
Why don’t I go to a bank? Why if I am so smart, I can’t just ‘count’ my way to a larger bankroll? First answer is: Too high of interest plus legal restrictions. Second answer, because as stated in the beginning, my bankroll building casino shut down. Yeah.
I don’t want to be begging for cash. It comes off as that way. Yet, here I am.
“How can we trust you?”: That, my friend, is why I am stuck. For two years I have had a good run. I have an estimated 11,000 USD in winning playing part time, but do to college, that was eaten up fast. Also, I was a dumb-ass and did not save any records for my sessions. Now that I am out of school for some time, why not take on a full time job. Much like the 21 teams in the 80’s, the 90’s, today, and even those from MIT, all needed a financier.
I feel a coin would be the best way. Of course, if there is a better way I would like to know.