The best strategy with these would 1 of 2 options.
Place a sell order in the market at 20% or whatever # you feel is right everytime you buy.
Ride it till the end.
When the markets hand you a price that could break even in half the time of other options you should really jump on it. There are others to factor in with hashnest as well, things like the price likely moving with the BTC/USD rate, when btc moves up the pricing for ghs’s moves down and the reverse, there is also something with the luck that I have been looking at. My current thought is that people might be dumping the GHS when the luck is sour and buying when its good, if this is correct then you can trade it based on the luck chart instead of worrying about the pricing.
Trying to base a trading strategy on the myriad different reasons and perceptions the vast number of different actors may have is so damn near impossible it’s one of the reasons I don’t even bother trying to trade now. It’s little more than a gamble most of the time for me, unless I have specific information in advance which I know will sway the majority of peoples choices at a given moment.
As much as I absolutely love markets, they drive me bonkers trying to negotiate all the possibilities.
If you’re right, and people are dumping/buying based on pool luck, then the caveat is that that’s only x% of the market participants, and only at this moment (however long that moment might be) in time, before another prevailing mood, reason (or lack there of) becomes dominant.
How the hell do you sift through to find the signals to suss out what the prevailing mood of the majority is at any given time though?
I am definitely NOT looking to build a comprehensive strategy based on those 1000 factors.
The luck for example would likely be something that you look at when you see the price has dropped as far as it has, if the luck has been down then you “know” that it will probably rebound like it has been lately.
I have done my share of day and intraday trading but I have found that I prefer the long term approach. This is the approach I am taking with hashnest, unless the difficulty doubles over night the s3s and 4s that I have bought when the math says they have a 100 day break even will likely break even in 120-150 days, even it takes 200 days thats still better than the 5s and 7s have been.
My Modus operandi is that as I am involved in a market like hashnest I notice certain things that may or may not be coincidences, as I pickup on these cues they guide my trading over time. I am tempted to augment my current strategy with my personal account and see if I do make more with the setting of sell orders and possibly looking to cashout altogether or partially when the luck is high.
Yes S4 is currently the best bet. I would keep an eye on s5 pricing though, looks like it might be coming down to be in line with the 3 and 4. OR 3 and 4 will bounce back up to the 180 days break even pricing.
All hardware mines the same amount of btc per ghs, its the btc price and the efficiency that says how much of it has to go to keep the lights on. In other words, the prices on hashnest could freeze and the difficulty could jump 100% and the earnings would stay in their respective order.
X days to break even is a # derived by dividing the cost per GHS by the BTC/Day after fees assuming 100% pool luck. Your correct that with antpool being so off as of late that the breakeven time isn’t correct. Keep in mind though that the breakeven # isn’t set in stone, its a guide line that gives you an idea of which contract is the better investment. All contracts at hashnest use antpool so the luck of antpool isn’t something that needs to be accounted for.
The difficulty increase is somehow connected to price increase. That means, if the price is not increasing, the diff will not jump so much. The price increase is not calculated and therefore ROI is never, that’s not realistic.
The difficulty and price are tied together in ways that are very difficult to discern. Difficulty goes up and so does price but you need the price to increase to spark new investment in hardware to increase the difficulty. Its not dissimilar to a time paradox, if you went back and gave mozart his best works, where did the works come from?
As for the avg diff increase, not sure where your getting 4.18%, I would bet your going all the way back to cpu and gpu mining. I would suggest dropping some of the earlier increases to give a better view whats likely to happen, I get 9.26% with an average time between adjustments of 12.71 days.
Just took the sum of the last X difficulty changes (long period) and devided it by the number of changes.
9% every ~14 days is not realstic just because we had some of those high numbers lately.
If we gather data from now on for a year, it won’t be 9% in average. (well, if the price will rise 1%/day, maybe then)
The best prognosis we can get is to look at the past. We had enough good and bad situations to have a good idea.
The connection between price and difficulty is actually quite easy to understand.
Miners do have a margin: [Reward of found blocks] - [hardware running costs]
This margin will tend to 0 (zero)
So miners will setup new hardware as long as the margin is still positive. (ignore volatility here)
(hashnest S7 are @ ~20% maint costs, so the hashrate can raise x5)
If you know the running costs, you can exactly calculate how much hashrate you can run until the margin is 0 at a given BTC price.
The halving can and will limitate this arms race. (thank god, otherwise half the planet would be covered with miners at some point )
Short: BTC price goes up -> spread between costs and rewards goes up -> mooAAarr hardware
That’s wrong, as explained, the diff follows the price, not the other way around.
Your way over simplifying it. If Diff increase = Price increase was always true then the difficulty wouldn’t have kept climbing through 2014 as the price was falling. As others have predicted the current run up in difficulty is likely from old hardware coming back online as the price makes it worthwhile to run, not the other way around. If/when the price takes another nose dive all of that older hardware will be turned back off and the diff will drop.
I have also come to the realization that the halving will spark a new arms race. Limited resource and all that.
I am not sure what your experience is with markets and understanding the difference between correlation and causation but I think your attempting to ascribe causation between diff and price when its simply correlation and not 100% of the time.
My net payouts are averaging 0.5633255135% (of principal) per day.
So, yes, I am “making money” by that measure.
However, the market value of my S5 is losing 0.988703552% a day.
So, when I combine the market value of my S5 GH/s and my total payouts, if I sold everything today I would lose 8.50756077% of my principal.
Obviously I’m hoping that with enough time, my payouts will outpace my losses. I certainly hope it will be less than my estimated 796 days-to-break-even, but with another large (12.45%) diff increase in the next 2.7 days, I guess only time will tell.
I’m posting these numbers to try and cut through the cloud of hype that masks a realistic understanding of Bitcoin mining’s profit potential.
You might consider amending your display for income, gain, loss, etc. I haven’t looked at your site in awhile but do you show your avg btc/ghs? By showing a negative daily % your making it look as if your losing money. You should also consider dropping the %/day and go with BTC/DAY after fees, the % per/ghs/day will vary based on several factors including the btc paid per ghs and because its a market my avg cost is different than yours and therefore my daily % will vary from yours as well.
Your NOT losing money, your getting regular payouts from mining, you will only see a loss if/when you sell the GHS at a loss. By showing a negative daily % your giving the impression that hashnest charges you more in fees than your earning when this isn’t true, you will see some blocks where your btc balance goes down a bit because of their funky mathematics but its always increasing, if/when hardware can’t pay for itself they pause that hardware and the GHS tied to it. In short, your btc balance shouldn’t be negative.
Did you do the math on which hardware got you the biggest bang for btc? What is your average cost per GHS?
Based on current prices S5 has a break even time of 163 days with no diff increases. I didn’t say to account for market value I said to show what YOUR avg buy price is. If your paying BTC for GHS whether they can be sold or not the btc YOU paid is needed to figure out your time to ROI.
My strategy for hashnest both for personal and DMT is to grab the hardware with the lowest ROI time based on the current price. I am ready and willing to dump GHS in DMTs account if/when they are in profit and another hardware option is better priced, for personal I am riding them into the ground. I will keep buying whatever GHS is the best buy and let dollar cost averaging do the work for me, if/when any of them have a decent spike I may consider taking some profit, but either way I am playing the long game.
Something else that people in the crypto world don’t seem to want to own up to, there are NO hardware options that will earn back their cost in BTC at the moment. This is why I am focused on daily income per GHS rather than solely on % need for fees.