So I’ve been doing some thinking (and playing) with Hashnest’s Lucky Hash. Based on the current market price for S7s (.0086395 or so at last check), the expected value of the game is positive, which is pretty rare for a lottery. Here’s the math that shows that: Selling all of the 4860 S7s on the open market would net (4860 hash * .00086395 * .9985 ) = 4.19248804 BTC. Chance of winning with 100 entries is 100/3000 = ~0.0333. So the EV is (4.128035 - 0.1) * .00333 + (.9667 * -0.1) = 0.03961021 BTC.
So this game at this price in the S7 market for these odds actually makes sense to play.
I’ve been doing that, but then my thinking evolved further: What if I created a colored coin and got 30 people to chip in .1 BTC for every lotto that we wanted to play. As long as the S7 price stayed above .00062 or so, we’d actually be in the black for each lotto.
Recognizing that it would be difficult to coordinate 30 entries, and in the spirit of the game, I decided that it might still be fun to pool our entires and that the colored coin could still be helpful for that, so here is what I propose: We target an upcoming lottery to coordinate on (say lotto 40), and then anyone interested post what they have bought for that lotto with the numbers that they purchase. I will confirm the number of entires by looking at the public list and then issue as many colored coins as people have entries. If one of our number wins (and if we get enough people involved our chance of that is very high), the winning number holder will commit to sell the shares on the marketplace and I will use the colored coin to distribute the profits to the group.
I’d like to be able to set this up a smart asset whereby a deposit address is publicly available and anyone who wins only needs to send the proceeds to the deposit address and the address takes care of distributing the funds on its own, but I don’t know how to do that (any thoughts anyone?). Interested in people’s thoughts and feedback on the above proposal.