Right now I’m using scrypt.cc a fair amount. It isn’t that there isn’t risks, it is just that the risk to reward ratio is lower than what I’m seeing in other crypto investments. Some people here are using GH mining, GHX and like to imply it is low risk because of the transparency. However when looking into it I have the transparency is really only about the mining and not about how to be profitable, if that is even possible. I concede that the risk of GHX being a scam is vastly lower than scrypt.cc but the time frame needed to achieve a profit is probably over a year, at least with the GHX batch 2.
How long you have to invest in something to get a profit greatly increases the chances of a bad event forcing one to take a loss. The bad event could be related to the investment or personal. Things happen.
- Business simply fails
- BTC price soars which leads to greatly increased mining difficulty
- BTC price tanks which leads to fees that exceed the income
- Market risks outside of BTC
- probably a lot more …
The point is, that these can’t be really planned on, although some can be hedged against.
I like numbers, so I going to assign a numbers.
For scrypt.cc - Risk of major bad event per month is 20% in my mind, it has been in business for over 15 months, but the person that makes it work has already had a liver replaced. ROI is 2 months. That gives me a 44% risk that I don’t break even in two months.
1.2^2 = 1.44
For GHX - Risk of a major bad event per month is probably more like 5%, it is unlikely to be a scam, but all other risks are there. Breakeven time is probably at least 10 months. That gives me a risk of 63% that I don’t break even in 10 months, which is 5 times longer than the other investment. (1.05^10) = 1.6289
Pretty much that simple. With GHX I’m seeing higher risk and I only get one spin to get it right. With scrypt.cc it is lower risk right now and I might get up to 5 spins to get it right. So right now that is why scrypt.cc wins. Realistically this is a temporary situation. Things will change and it might look totally different in a month. I reserve the right to change my view if things change.
I know some don’t care about profit, but from an investment standpoint profit is the most importing concern.